Here in Marin, we evidently have absolutely zero concept of economics and economic incentives.

Marin IJ columnist and Sierra Club member, Dick Spotswood, wrote this article for the IJ: SMART-like system has succeeded elsewhere

The "let’s pull the wool over their eyes" pro-SMART forces want us to believe that the economics of the SMART system will work "if we only let them". The latest comparison to the Utah TRAX system is yet another red herring.

"It there ever was an auto-dependent politically conservative region with little tradition of public transit use, it is sprawling Salt Lake County, Utah. Compare that to Marin and Sonoma with 750,000 people centered along a rail line paralleled by a clogged "freeway" where travel is anything but free and easy. It's hard to believe that progressive North Bay commuters will shun rail transit when it has been embraced in Utah, of all places."

Salt Lake City has a population of over 180k and a population density of approximately 650 people per square kilometer. Just over 1 million people live in the Salt Lake Valley area (the TRAX area) at a population density of approximately 770 people per square kilometer. The TRAX system connects DOWNTOWN SLC with the outer urban areas and the suburbs. It has 24 stations over 17 miles of track: one station per 7/10ths of a mile. The Salt Lake Valley population has grown over 20% a decade since 1970 and per capita income is a little less than $21k.

By comparison; Marin has a population of about 250k and a density of 185 people per square kilometer. Sonoma has a population of 450k and a density of 112 people per sq km. Even if you argue that the population really lives on only 1/2 of the land, the average density only goes up to 260 people per sq km. The SMART system is supposed to cover 70 miles and have 14 stations: one station per 5 miles. Since 1970, Marin County’s population has grown by just 18.5%, or less than 6% per decade. Per capita income is $45k.

Clearly the “bet” with the SMART system is that if you build it, they will come. The initial projections suggest modest ridership and subsidies for something like 70% of operating costs. The only way to have this plan make sense is for population densities around the stations to go way up and for overall population growth in Marin to eventually make the economics work.

The reality is that Marin County has been locked into “no growth” mode for 35 years. The local residents appear to prefer their relatively suburban lifestyle as they have done just about everything they can to prevent new housing developments from crowding them. They have blocked transit expansion for fear that more highways will bring more residents and more traffic. Marin has consistently put up the “you are not welcome here” sign for just about any new for-profit enterprise.

And yet the social engineers want to make us believe that new riders will magically appear out of…where?

SMART is DUMB