In Marin (and Sonoma) County, the urban "utopists" are at it again.  The Sonoma Marin Area Rail Transit District, the "SMART" District, was created in 2002 to create passenger train service in the 75 mile corridor from Cloverdale to Larkspur. The SMART district's board members are supposed to "evaluate" the feasibility of this service before they commit to building it.

Having this group "evaluate" this project is somewhat akin to having your toddler "evaluate" his request for an additional toy... There is little objective analysis in the process and, unlike you, your toddler has unlimited time to figure out ways to beg for more toys. Just like your child, this group of SMARTies hopes that they will eventually wear down the opposition and get their shiny new toy – a white elephant of a rail system.

The Marin Independent Journal ran this front page story by Mark Prado on the SMART project yesterday.  The first thing that stands out is that the estimates of the project costs are ridiculously low. Current cost projections for light rail systems are at least $30 million and as much as $40 million per mile, suggesting that total project costs would be in the $3 billion, not $387 million range. Annual operating costs of $14.2 million? The 29.5 mile San Jose light rail system cost $54 million to operate in 2002, or $1.8 million per mile. If the SMART plan has similar results (and why wouldn't’t they?), then operating costs would be more like $137 million per year. 

(For real data geeks, take a look at the National Transit Database for more data on what the various forms of public transit really cost.)

The SMART rail system considers the 75 miles of right of way a free resource in this analysis.  Any intellectually honest assessment of the project would include the opportunity cost of committing over 900 acres of land (75 miles of 100 feet wide right of way) to this white elephant.  If this land was only worth $150,000 an acre, the land alone would be worth $135 million.  This land could be used for everything from low income housing to rural agricultural land and urban parks.  If used for commercial or residential purposes, it could add at least a $1 million and up to $10 million a year in property tax revenue. 

There is absolutely no way this project makes any economic sense and yet the Directors of the SMART district continue to try to figure out how to put lipstick on this pig and sell it to the voters.  It's our money and with our money SMART is DUMB.